Pope to make climate action a moral obligation

Many aspects of the climate change issue cannot be handled well by traditional market forces and politics. The people effected most are 1) people in poor countries, and 2) future generations, neither of whom have any market impact for the next quarter, or vote in current U.S. elections. Thus it's important to see other organizations, and in particular religions stepping up to the plate on this.

When Benedict XVI was first elected to his position as the new Pope, there was a concern that he would turn the Catholic Church in a very conservative direction. The fact that the announcement below is coming from what most people view as a very conservative Pope makes it all the more surprising and important as a milestone in the changing views on sustainable development and climate change.

The Pope is expected to use his first address to the United Nations to deliver a powerful warning over climate change in a move to adopt protection of the environment as a "moral" cause for the Catholic Church and its billion-strong following. The New York speech is likely to contain an appeal for sustainable development, and it will follow an unprecedented Encyclical (a message to the wider church) on the subject... It will act as the centerpiece of a US visit scheduled for next April.... and round off an environmental blitz at the Vatican, in which the Pope has personally led moves to emphasize green issues based on the belief that climate change is affecting the poorest people on the planet, and the principle that believers have a duty to "protect creation".

Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, head of the Catholic Church in the UK, said last night: "This is a crucial issue both today and for all future generations. We are the stewards of creation and we need to take that responsibility seriously and co-operate to care for the created world."

A Papal tour of America will be particularly potent during election year in
the US, where Catholics number around 73 million [emphasis added]

( from http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article2987811.ece )

An Insightful Bush Quote

In his nationally televised speech this week, President Bush actually said something very insightful.

"In the life of all free nations, there come moments that decide the direction of a country and reveal the character of its people. We are now at such a moment."

I couldn't agree more. However, I suspect that he an I interpret this in different ways. We are now in a period where we have to make a fundamental choice about our future direction. Do we want to continue with the policies of attempting to establish military domination over the world? Or do we want to change to a policy of investing considerable effort into building a peaceful, cooperative world community? Depending on which road we decide to take, our future will be very different. This fundamental choice will reveal much about our character as a people. I only wish the politicians, news organizations, and religious leaders would talk more about it.

One of my favorite groups that are talking about it are the Network of Spiritual Progressives, and their promotion of a Global Marshal Plan. The other group is based around the Great Turning initiatives of David Korten and Joanna Macy. More on these later.

A Bankrupt Nation?

I didn't intend for this to be a purely negative blog, but since I'm on the subject of the collapsing American Empire, I couldn't resist comment on the recent article by Robert Freeman titled The Frightening Future in the Market Meltdown . He makes the following points:

• When Ronald Reagan took office, in 1981, the cumulative national debt stood at $1 trillion. Today, it approaches $9 trillion
• In 1975, personal household debt amounted to only 61% of disposable income. Today it stands at over 135%.
• Consumers have expanded mortgage debt by over $11 trillion since 2001, using mortgage equity withdrawals to purchase life styles far beyond what their incomes alone could support.
• The annual trade deficit that stood at $377 billion in 2000 now exceeds $800 billion.
• Over the past six years, this trade deficit has added a cumulative $3 trillion of debt to the economy.
• Adding up the national debt, consumer debt, and trade debt gives an increase in debt over the past six years comes to $17 trillion. (Note that any economy that borrows $17 trillion in six years can be made to look good, at least for a while. The problem is when the bills come due. )
• Lawrence Kotlikoff, writing for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revealed last year that the U.S. actually faces $65 trillion in “unfunded liabilities,” debts it has committed to pay but for which there is no identified source of funding.

Here's a definition (from Wikipedia)

Bankruptcy - a legally declared inability or impairment of ability of an individual or organizations to pay their creditors.

It's hard to see how the U.S. can pay these obligations under any reasonable scenario. We currently have to borrow $2.5 billion every day from the rest of the world just to keep afloat, sinking further and further into debt with no improvement in the situation in sight. Based on the above data, we appear to be, by any reasonable definition, a bankrupt nation waiting for the bills to come due. Where is this argument wrong?

Overshoot and Crash - U.S. Empire and the Middle East

It is a well known phenomena in the study of nature that when a system grows beyond a sustainable level, it will eventually decline. And the farther it overshoots that sustainable level, the more dramatic the decline, or in some cases "crash" will eventually be. One of the best illustrations of this is a population of animals that grows beyond what the local food supply can support. The population will eventually decline to more sustainable levels, and the greater the population overshoot, the more dramatic the die-off will be.

This brings us to the history of empires. They inevitably grow to overshoot what the base can sustain in terms of economic and human costs, followed by a decline. Whether they gradually shrink to more sustainable levels, or dramatically crash to a shadow of their former selves depends on how far they overshoot their sustainable level, and how long they manage to deny reality before starting to make the necessary draw backs.

In the case of the American empire, we now have over 700 military bases in other countries around the world. With the cost of the Iraq war likely to exceed $1 trillion, it seems likely that we have significantly overshot what we can sustain and are headed for a decline from our current state. Whether this will be a gradual orderly roll-back or a more dramatic crash depends on whether we continue with a policy of attempting to militarily dominate the world, or realize the folly of this effort and start to change our approach. Unfortunately, it looks like we may be on a path to push our military overcommitment even farther beyond the limits of sustainability. Consider the following news from the experts at Informed Comment Global Affairs

"...[from Cheney's 2002 speech referring to the campaign to drum up support for the Iraq war beginning in Sept 2002] After all "from a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August." Today I received a message from a friend who has excellent connections in Washington and whose information has often been prescient. According to this report, as in 2002, the rollout will start after Labor Day, with a big kickoff on September 11. My friend had spoken to someone in one of the leading neo-conservative institutions. He summarized what he was told this way:

They [the source's institution] have "instructions" (yes, that was the word used) from the Office of the Vice-President to roll out a campaign for war with Iran in the week after Labor Day; it will be coordinated with the American Enterprise Institute, the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard, Commentary, Fox, and the usual suspects. It will be heavy sustained assault on the airwaves, designed to knock public sentiment into a position from which a war can be maintained. Evidently they don't think they'll ever get majority support for this--they want something like 35-40 percent support, which in their book is "plenty."

If you don't look forward to ruinous future for America, it's hard to think of a scarier scenario for the final months of the Cheney/Bush administration.

Where Will Major Water Shortages Hit the US First?

As our population and consumption rates continue to grow, we are face shortage of a number of natural resources within the next decade or two. Oil is one of the most talked about, as I mentioned elsewhere, but one that may cause major problems even sooner is water. Oil can be economically shipped from the other side of the world, and there are alternatives to oil for many of its present uses. These things are not true for water.

The area of America that will face severe water shortages first is in the south west. A recent report described the situation as follows:

The news coming from the Southern Nevada Water Authority Thursday about the valley's future water supply is worrisome. Unless we act quickly, there will be no water for hundreds of thousands of Las Vegas Valley residents in just three years…SNWA data shows drought conditions getting worse, not better
http://www.lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=6943263

The article goes on to describe costly project needed to bring in water to Las Vegas from elsewhere, as well as stating the need for some more conservation. Nowhere does it mention the obvious fact here – it does not make sense to construct a large city in the middle of the desert where there are very limited water supplies. This is yet another good example demonstrating that normal market forces are not good at making long term plans for dealing with limited resources. More on that in a future append.

Another Report that we have already passed “Peak Oil”

According to a recent report ( details at http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0806/p15s01-wmgn.htm )

The world output of oil actually already peaked in May 2005 at 74.2 million barrels a day, says Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based Simmons & Company International, an investment banking firm for the energy industry…. Since then, production has fallen about 1 million barrels a day (MB/D). If that trend continues, the results for the world economy will be “so real, so devastating” that peak oil concerns will overwhelm slower-moving global warming in grabbing world attention.

Last Tuesday, the price of oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange set a record, rising as high as $78.40. That exceeded the previous high of $77.03 set in July 2006 at the onset of Israel’s war in Lebanon.

Oil shortages, warns Simmons, could lead to war.

"Could lead to war??" How about "Have already lead to war." The desire to have large permanent military bases in the Middle East to exercise more long term control over that area was likely one of the key motivating factors for the start of the Iraq war in 2003. I'm afraid that armed conflict over oil will be part of mankind's fate for the foreseeable future.

The Noisy Restaurant

Humans have a great ability to pick out a conversation and understand it in a noisy environment, such as at a restaurant or a party. Computer speech recognition is gradually getting this ability too. I recently read about a new development in computer speech recognition that allows it to listen to multiple conversations in a noisy environment and actually understand what was happening in each of those multiple conversations. Why not? Once it can understand one conversation in a noisy environment, it makes sense that duplicating some hardware should allow it to understand multiple conversations.

This brings some interesting situations to mind. Imagine a robot waitress (waiter? what's the correct term for something without a gender - waitred?) taking orders at a table. Instead of taking turns giving their order, each person could speak up simultaneously and announce their orders all at the same time. It would take some getting used to, but it's fun to think about.

That leads to the question of what other capabilities such a robot waitress could have that don't necessarily mimic human capabilities exactly. For example, arms that are more flexible and extendable with additional joints for placing food dishes directly in front of people on crowded tables. How about the ability to see in all directions (360 degrees) at the same time to better keep track of all the customers at different tables? No need to limit it to two eyes. Science fiction films too often portray robots with physical characteristics similar to humans, but that just shows a lack of imagination.

Addendum: Here's an even stranger one that might be a little hard to grasp at first - there's no need for each of the robot waitresses to have a "separate mind". They could all share the same mind, linked to their bodies by radio communication. Then you can grab the attention of any robot waitress walking by, and they will be able to respond to you with exactly the same familiarity as the original physical robot that greeted you when you first sat down.

The Demise of Professional Sports

Some people have predicted that professional sports as we know them have at most a decade left to exist. It turns out that they may have been too optimistic.

The reason behind this prediction is that the use of performance enhancing drugs will become more and more widespread. Already new designer drugs are appearing faster than they can devise tests for them. And within a decade genetic engineering will produce dramatic athletic improvements while being essentially impossible to detect.

If you look at the news today from the Tour de France, I currently count three teams that have pulled out due to illegal drug use, and the current leader, Michael Rasmussen was just disqualified. The race is becoming a contest of who has the best chemist, with the chances of winning without the aid of performance enhancing drugs growing dimmer each year. The Tour de France, as we knew it, is just about over.

And in baseball, Barry Bonds is about to break the all time home run record with what clearly seems to be the aid of performance enhancing drugs, rendering that record almost meaningless. Before long it will become routine for someone to hit over 100 home runs in a year.

Try to imagine football with 300 pound quarterbacks and linemen routine exceeding 500 pounds. Where is this all going?

Perhaps the basic contradiction at the heart of professional (something done for money) sport (something done solely for fun) will reach a point where it cannot be overcome or hidden behind a fantasy any longer.

More Indication that the Housing Bubble is About to Burst?

In a recent posting by Dean Baker at Alternet.org, he noted the following information:

1. The inventory of unsold homes climbed to 4.4 million in May, yet another record.
2. House prices are down by 4.9 percent in the Boston area and by 6 percent in San Diego.
3. Foreclosure rates are soaring.

Dean Baker goes on to state that house prices will not collapse to nothing like the most ridiculous of the Internet stocks, but homes in the most-inflated markets could lose 30 to 50 percent (in real terms) from their bubble peaks.

As I stated in a previous post, The U.S. economy has been operating in an unsustainable mode for some time now, and many experts have been predicting a serious "correction" for some time in the future. One of the main problems is the housing bubble. This could burst at any time, sending many overextended American families, and the American economy in general into deep financial trouble.

End of an Era?

Let's see, Wolfowitz just resigned. Jerry Falwell died. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is about to resign. Toni Blair announced that he will be leaving office. The military is just about in an open revolt against the administration policies.

Sounds like the beginning of an end of an era to me.

Priorities for NASA and others

In a recent article in Wired Magazine (June 2007) by Gregg Easterbrook proposed the following set of rational priorities for NASA, in descending order of importance:

1. Conduct research, particularly environmental research, on the Earth, the Sun, and Venus (the most Earth like planet)
   
2. Locate asteroids and comets that might strike Earth, and devise a practical means for deflecting them
3. Increase humanity's store of knowledge by studying the distant universe
4. Figure our a way to replace today's chemical rockets with a much cheaper way to reach Earth orbit.
   

Sounds like a very rational set of priorities to me. But here, according to the article, are NASA's current priorities:

1. Maintain a pointless space station
2. Build a pointless "Motel 6" on the moon.
3. Increase humanity's store of knowledge by studying the distant universe
4. Keep money flowing to favored aerospace contractors and congressional districts

That's only 1 for 4 in getting the right priorities, and the two most important ones are missing. One of the key aspects of leadership is the ability to set the right priorities, since you can never do everything you want. One of the key failures of the current national administration, as illustrated in the above lists, is the inability to properly set a reasonable set of rational priorities.

With that in mind, I can't help adding my own following list of what our national priorities should be in terms of addressing the biggest threats from rogue states and terrorists groups:

1. Al-Queda
2. North Korea
3. Islamic revolution in a nuclear armed Pakistan
4. The "loose nukes problem" in Russia
5. Iran
6. Iraq

Guess where the vast majority of our effort and resources is focused? Talk about a good illustration of the problems that arise from not setting reasonable rational priorities...

More Evidence of a Major Cultural Shift on Climate Change

Just another sign that we have passed the tipping point on public attitudes towards climate change. Here are some excerpts from a recent debate between John Kerry and Newt Gingrich. It was advertised as a "smack-down and a prizefight" over climate change, but it turned out to be something quite different. Wow....read Gingrich's words carefully and slowely. We really are winning.

[Kerry to Gingrich ] "what would you say to Senator [Jim] Inhofe [R-Okla.] and to others in the Senate who are resisting even the science?"

Gingrich didn't hesitate. "My message," he said, "is that the evidence is sufficient that we should move towards the most effective possible steps to reduce carbon loading of the atmosphere." The pro-Kerry crowd applauded.

"And do it urgently?" the senator pressed.

"And do it urgently, yeah," the former speaker replied. "I think there has to be, if you will, a green conservatism," he added.

Kerry didn't know quite what to do with his agreeable opponent.....

Full article is here

The Great Turning Conference

I just returned from a wonderful three day “leadership conference” about “Navigating the Great Turning” in Columbus Ohio (http://www.greatturninggathering.org/ ). The conference featured David Korten, author of The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community, and David Cobb, the 2004 presidential candidate of the Green Party of the United States.

Many of the themes in the conference were based on Korten’s book The Great Turning, which made a big impression on my when I read it several months ago (for more information see http://thegreatturning.net/ ). In the book, Korten promotes the theme that the paradigm of Empire, which has dominated much of the world’s stage for 5,000+ years is no longer sustainable (if it ever was) and is collapsing. With some effort, it is being replaced by a paradigm of increased partnership relations in what Kortin refers to as the Earth Community. However, it is also possible that the collapsing Empire could be replaced by an increasingly brutal fight for dominance over other groups and access to the remaining resources. It was the goal of the conference to promote the vision of Earth Community partnerships as the alternative to the vision of Empire, and to help give people the tools and encouragement to work towards this more optimistic partnership vision of the future.

Many of these themes are contained in my presentation linked to on the right hand column of this blog (see Sustainability or Apocalypse). This analysis of events and vision of the future resonated with me personally, and with many of the religious groups represented at the conference. I would like to note that Unitarian Universalists dominated the religious representation there, in large part because they were co-sponsors of the conference. I will post more thoughts and insights from the discussions at the conference later. In the mean time, I added a link to the “Great Turning” web site to the list of links on the right column of this blog.

Zbigniew Brzezinski's Views

There are many arguments that what we do in the next few decades will strongly impact the longer term future of humanity. See my presentation on Sustainability or Apocalypse. But there may also be a much shorter range critical period that we need to be concerned about.

"If we can get through the next 20 months, there is some hope for America recovering and moving forward as a positive force in the world. However, if the war in Iraq expands to other areas of the region, especially to Iran, we could be involved in a 20 year conflict spanning Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and possibly Pakistan. And that will be the end of American global supremacy."

The above quote is a rough paraphrase of the comments from Zbigniew Brzezinski on The Daily Show March 14, 2007

These comments appear near the end of the segment.

Collapse of Arctic Sea Ice 'Has Reached Tipping-Point'

There are multiple "tipping points" in climate change - points at which comparatively rapid change starts to occur from which it is hard to recover and return to the original climate state. Some of the tipping points are expected to be reached in a decade or two if we do nothing. This one, however, may be imminent.

A catastrophic collapse of the Arctic sea ice could lead to radical climate changes in the northern hemisphere according to scientists who warn that the rapid melting is at a "tipping point" beyond which it may not recover.

See the full article at: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0316-04.htm

The Overextended U. S. Economy and Bankruptcy

On a more general note about the U.S. economy being overextended, here is another article from last year .

The United States is heading for bankruptcy, according to an extraordinary paper published by one of the key members of the country's central bank. A ballooning budget deficit and a pensions and welfare timebomb could send the economic superpower into insolvency, according to research by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff for the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, a leading constituent of the US Federal Reserve. Prof Kotlikoff said that, by some measures, the US is already bankrupt.

"To paraphrase the Oxford English Dictionary, is the United States at the end of its resources, exhausted, stripped bare, destitute, bereft, wanting in property, or wrecked in consequence of failure to pay its creditors," he asked….

.

The full article is available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/14/cnusa14.xml

Many of these arguments sound very convincing when you look at the data they point to. However, the one concern is that people have been predicting a “major correction” for some time now, often predicting in the past that it would have already happened by this point time. Is there something fundamentally wrong with their analysis, or just with their timing?

Housing Bubble About to Burst?

The U.S. economy has been operating in an unsustainable mode for some time now, and many experts have been predicting a serious "correction" for some time in the future. One of the multiple problems ( huge budget deficit, trade deficit, etc.) is the housing bubble. This could burst at any time, sending many overextended American families into deep financial trouble.

There was a recent article quoting financial expert Jim Rogers about this. Excerpts:

...investment guru Jim Rogers stepped into the U.S. subprime fray on Wednesday, predicting a real estate crash that would trigger defaults and spread contagion to emerging markets.

"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager told Reuters by telephone from New York.

"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops.

See the full article at: http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL1470530620070314

Recording Your Life

In New Jersey last fall, 16 year old Matt Leclair started objecting when one of his public school teachers promoted his fundamentalistic religious beliefs during class. When the teacher denied to the principle that he did that, Matt took out a recording he secretely made in class that clearly showed the teacher doing what Matt claimed. The school took immediate action to make sure this would never happen again - they banned students from recording in class again. (To be fair I believe they also told the teacher not to make such religions statements again too).

Thanks to rapidly developing technology it's going to be possible to record more and more aspects of everyone's daily life, so get used to it. The school was a little naive to think they could actually ban such recordings. Students can now by a mini MP3 player that can also be used as a tape recorder. These things are so small that it's impossible to prevent students from bringing them into school and recording what happens without conducting exhaustive strip searches each morning. And the technology gets better each year.

Did You Know? - the video

There is a great little video making the rounds about the exponential rate of change we are living through titled "Did you know?" http://www.scottmcleod.org/didyouknow.wmv

It was based on a presentation about the future of education created by Karl Fisch, a high school teacher in Colorado. It contains some of the predictions about future computer power that were made by Ray Kurzweil in his book "The Singularity is Near", as well as some comments about the growth of China and India. Besides a lot of intriguing facts, it is accompanied by a wonderful instrumental musical selection that becomes strangely haunting after listening for a while.

You can find our more information about this video and Karl Fisch on his blog at http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2006/08/did-you-know.html
He's an interesting character, and his blog contains a lot of good commentary on our educational system.

Is Peak Oil Here Already?

"In the next year or two the issue of peak oil may replace global warming as what we're worried about and talking about."

This prediction was recently made by Matt Simmons, Chairman of Simmons and Co. International, an independent investment bank specializing in the energy industry. Matt recently made an interesting claim that we are already at world wide peak oil production. Oil production in the future may be flat for a while and then start an inevitable decline. With demand for oil still accelerating, this will drive oil prices substantially higher, possibly reaching $300 per barrel at some point

He expects big changes in society, and if we make these changes right we'll get through this change alright. You can see Matt Simmons talk about this here.

Additional speeches from Matt Simmons are available here. Another interesting link on peak oil can be found here.

The Prospect for Change in the Coming Century

The 20th century started with no automobile or air travel to speak of, or without at theory of atoms. Teddy Roosevelt had not yet started pushing the modern conservation movement and building out our national park system. The 20th century ended with supercomputers communicating over the internet, genetic engineering, nuclear power, space shuttles flights, studies of planets in other solar systems, and extensive studies of the changes to Earth’s climate that we were causing.

Will that be the greatest century of change in the history of humanity? Is the path that civilization is on represented by what is called an “S curve” that looks like the curve below?


Remarkable as this century of change is, all indications are that the coming century will introduce even greater changes. And more surprisingly, this amount of change could take place in just the first 50 or 60 years of the 21st century. In other words, the rate of change is actually accelerating, and the path of civilization will look more like the exponential curve here.

An Introduction to an Interesting Journey

Let me introduce myself and this blog. I work at a major computer firm projecting the future direction of technology developments. My interest in studies of the future dates back to at least my college years when I took a senior seminar on the topic. Lately I have been convinced that we are entering a fascinating period of significant change in both our technological capabilities and social structures. The consequences of which can be very beneficial, or very disruptive (or both), but they will likely be profound. This blog is an attempt to summarize the thoughts of others and myself on some of the more interesting and provocative outlooks for the next 10 to 50 years, and to explore some of the ways that we can help determine which of multiple paths humankind will follow. It promises to be a very interesting journey.